Tiktok may be sold or remain unchanged, yet it won’t be quite the same.
TikTok has declared its intention to challenge any ban or compulsory sale of its U.S. operations through legal means, following the House of Representatives’ passage of a bill aimed at the popular video-sharing platform.
On Saturday, the House approved the legislation with a 360 to 58 vote as part of a foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The TikTok bill will now proceed to the Senate, where it could be voted on this week. President Joe Biden has indicated his support for the legislation.
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Who might acquire Tiktok?
If ByteDance decides to sell TikTok, the process will be intricate and costly, according to analysts. Tiktok may be sold or remain unchanged, yet it won’t be quite the same. Wedbush analysts consider Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle likely buyers, while a private equity firm could also be in the running. Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin mentioned to CNBC in March that he’s assembling an investment group.
However, the Chinese government might attempt to block a sale. China’s Commerce Ministry stated last year that any sale or divestiture of TikTok would involve exporting technology, which requires approval from the Chinese government.
“We believe there is zero chance TikTok would be sold with the algorithm, as Beijing and ByteDance would never permit it,” the Wedbush analysts commented.
The note further explained that TikTok’s value changes “substantially” without the algorithms that drive its video recommendations.
Impact on the Stock Market.
Gizmo: TikTok isn’t listed on the stock market. What could be the impact on social media stocks if a ban is enforced?
short term, other social media stocks might see gains, since a TikTok ban would likely give its competitors an advantage, at least temporarily.
But over the long term, I would ask, as an investor, what does a TikTok ban imply for the future of social media regulation? Does banning TikTok indicate that the U.S. government is adopting a tougher stance on social media companies?
Would we then anticipate more laws and regulations targeting other companies that gather similar personal information to TikTok and exert strong control over the content users see? I believe a TikTok ban could set a precedent for stricter regulation or increased government intervention in the social media industry going forward.
When will the prohibition start to apply?
Negotiations extended the deadline for ByteDance to divest from its U.S. unit from six months to nine months. The business will then have an additional three months to finalize the transaction, assuming one is already underway.
Therefore, it would take at least a year for the prohibition to take effect; however, given the likelihood of judicial challenges, this might take years. TikTok has occasionally been successful in legal battles, but it has never attempted to stop the implementation of federal legislation.
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